Hang Sai 1–4 Toi Seng: Result & Stats

Hang Sai

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Toi Seng

7/8/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 15Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hang Sai56%

×Draw18%

Toi Seng26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang SaiExpected goals in this matchToi Seng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.94

Hang Sai

2.87

Toi Seng

1.94

Hang Sai creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

2.35

creates per match

1.13

2.76

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Hang Sai

2.35

Toi Seng

1.13

allows per match

Hang Sai

2.76

Toi Seng

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par

Toi Seng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Toi Seng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw

74%

Hang Sai or Toi Seng

82%

Draw or Toi Seng

44%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+

37%

Toi Seng wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals

94%

Hang Sai 2+ goals

77%

Hang Sai 3+ goals

53%

Toi Seng 1+ goals

86%

Toi Seng 2+ goals

58%

Toi Seng 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)

69%

Toi Seng (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Toi Seng away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Toi Seng defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.87

Toi Seng attack 1.13 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hang Sai scores more

56%

level

18%

Toi Seng scores more

26%

Hang Sai at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hang Sai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff