Toi Seng 1–4 Benfica: Result & Stats

Toi Seng

FT

1 – 4

Benfica

6/3/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 12Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Toi Seng13%

×Draw14%

Benfica73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toi SengExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.25

Toi Seng

1.33

Benfica

3.25

Benfica creates 144% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

1.00

creates per match

2.38

4.13

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Toi Seng

1.00

Benfica

2.38

allows per match

Toi Seng

4.13

Benfica

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toi Seng+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toi Seng ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Toi Seng or draw

27%

Toi Seng or Benfica

86%

Draw or Benfica

87%

Winning margin

Toi Seng wins by 2+

5%

Benfica wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Toi Seng 1+ goals

74%

Toi Seng 2+ goals

38%

Toi Seng 3+ goals

15%

Benfica 1+ goals

96%

Benfica 2+ goals

83%

Benfica 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Toi Seng (draw refunded)

15%

Benfica (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toi Seng at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toi Seng attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Benfica attack 2.38 + Toi Seng defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Toi Seng scores more

13%

level

14%

Benfica scores more

73%

Benfica at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff