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Benfica vs Toi Seng — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
4 – 0
Toi Seng
Toi Seng
3/17/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 3Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Benfica78%
×Draw13%
Toi Seng10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
3.38
Toi Seng
1.19

Benfica creates 184% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 8 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Toi Seng
1.13

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Toi Seng
3.38

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Toi Seng+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Toi Seng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
90%
Benfica or Toi Seng
87%
Draw or Toi Seng
22%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
59%
Toi Seng wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
96%
Benfica 2+ goals
84%
Benfica 3+ goals
64%
Toi Seng 1+ goals
70%
Toi Seng 2+ goals
33%
Toi Seng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
89%
Toi Seng (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Toi Seng away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Toi Seng defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.38

Toi Seng attack 1.13 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Benfica scores more
78%
level
13%
Toi Seng scores more
10%

Benfica at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Benfica 4–0 Toi Seng

Benfica beat Toi Seng 4-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.