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Nakumatt vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
2 – 0
Western Stima
Western Stima
4/22/2017FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt33%
×Draw25%
Western Stima42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.33
Western Stima
1.54

Western Stima creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.43
Western Stima
0.95

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.14
Western Stima
1.24

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
58%
Nakumatt or Western Stima
75%
Draw or Western Stima
67%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
14%
Western Stima wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
74%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
38%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
15%
Western Stima 1+ goals
79%
Western Stima 2+ goals
45%
Western Stima 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
44%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Western Stima defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Western Stima attack 0.95 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nakumatt scores more
33%
level
25%
Western Stima scores more
42%

Western Stima at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakumatt vs Western Stima

Nakumatt beat Western Stima 2-0 in FKF Premier League on April 22, 2017.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).