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Nakumatt vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
0 – 3
Western Stima
Western Stima
5/1/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 27Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nakumatt32%
×Draw24%
Western Stima44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.38
Western Stima
1.65

Western Stima creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.45
Western Stima
0.96

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.33
Western Stima
1.31

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
56%
Nakumatt or Western Stima
76%
Draw or Western Stima
68%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
14%
Western Stima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
75%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
40%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
16%
Western Stima 1+ goals
81%
Western Stima 2+ goals
49%
Western Stima 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
42%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.33 · 33 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.45 + Western Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Western Stima attack 0.96 + Nakumatt defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nakumatt scores more
32%
level
24%
Western Stima scores more
44%

Western Stima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakumatt vs Western Stima

Western Stima beat Nakumatt 3-0 in FKF Premier League on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).