TOGB 1–2 Smitshoek: Result & Stats

TOGB

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Smitshoek

11/16/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 13Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TOGB59%

×Draw19%

Smitshoek22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOGBExpected goals in this matchSmitshoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.52

TOGB

2.54

Smitshoek

1.52

TOGB creates 67% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

2.03

creates per match

1.76

1.29

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

TOGB

2.03

Smitshoek

1.76

allows per match

TOGB

1.29

Smitshoek

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par

Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

Smitshoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

TOGB or draw

78%

TOGB or Smitshoek

81%

Draw or Smitshoek

41%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+

38%

Smitshoek wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals

92%

TOGB 2+ goals

72%

TOGB 3+ goals

46%

Smitshoek 1+ goals

78%

Smitshoek 2+ goals

45%

Smitshoek 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)

73%

Smitshoek (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.54

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TOGB scores more

59%

level

19%

Smitshoek scores more

22%

TOGB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff