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Smitshoek vs TOGB — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Smitshoek
Smitshoek
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TOGB
TOGB
4/19/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 30Sportpark Smitshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smitshoek32%
×Draw22%
TOGB46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smitshoek
1.60
TOGB
1.94

TOGB creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Smitshoek
1.35
TOGB
1.40

allows per match

Smitshoek
2.47
TOGB
1.84

finishing

Smitshoek+0.00on par
TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smitshoek ↓

TOGB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Smitshoek or draw
54%
Smitshoek or TOGB
78%
Draw or TOGB
68%

Winning margin

Smitshoek wins by 2+
15%
TOGB wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Smitshoek 1+ goals
80%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
47%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
22%
TOGB 1+ goals
86%
TOGB 2+ goals
58%
TOGB 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Smitshoek (draw refunded)
41%
TOGB (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smitshoek at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smitshoek attack 1.35 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

TOGB attack 1.40 + Smitshoek defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Smitshoek scores more
32%
level
22%
TOGB scores more
46%

TOGB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Smitshoek 1–2 TOGB

TOGB beat Smitshoek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Smitshoek in Barendrecht.