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TOGB vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

TOGB
TOGB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
OSS '20
OSS '20
9/3/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 3Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

TOGB48%
×Draw23%
OSS '2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOGB
1.84
OSS '20
1.39

TOGB creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 65 away

creates per match

TOGB
2.03
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

TOGB
1.29
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

TOGB or draw
71%
TOGB or OSS '20
77%
Draw or OSS '20
52%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+
26%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals
84%
TOGB 2+ goals
55%
TOGB 3+ goals
28%
OSS '20 1+ goals
75%
OSS '20 2+ goals
40%
OSS '20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)
62%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.84

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TOGB scores more
48%
level
23%
OSS '20 scores more
29%

TOGB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TOGB 2 – 1 OSS '20

TOGB beat OSS '20 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel in Berkel en Rodenrijs.