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OSS '20 vs TOGB — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OSS '20
OSS '20
FT
4 – 1
TOGB
TOGB
1/28/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 20Sportpark De Rusheuvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

OSS '2046%
×Draw23%
TOGB32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OSS '20
1.82
TOGB
1.48

OSS '20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

OSS '20
1.80
TOGB
1.40

allows per match

OSS '20
1.57
TOGB
1.84

finishing

OSS '20+0.00on par
TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OSS '20 ↓

TOGB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OSS '20 or draw
68%
OSS '20 or TOGB
77%
Draw or TOGB
54%

Winning margin

OSS '20 wins by 2+
25%
TOGB wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

OSS '20 1+ goals
84%
OSS '20 2+ goals
54%
OSS '20 3+ goals
27%
TOGB 1+ goals
77%
TOGB 2+ goals
43%
TOGB 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OSS '20 (draw refunded)
59%
TOGB (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OSS '20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 65 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OSS '20 attack 1.80 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.82

TOGB attack 1.40 + OSS '20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OSS '20 scores more
46%
level
23%
TOGB scores more
32%

OSS '20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "OSS '20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OSS '20 4–1 TOGB

OSS '20 beat TOGB 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Rusheuvel in Oss.