TOGB 3–0 GVV Unitas: Result & Stats

TOGB

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

GVV Unitas

9/16/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 5Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

TOGB55%

×Draw21%

GVV Unitas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOGBExpected goals in this matchGVV Unitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.25

TOGB

2.04

GVV Unitas

1.25

TOGB creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 54 away

2.03

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

TOGB

2.03

GVV Unitas

1.22

allows per match

TOGB

1.29

GVV Unitas

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOGB+0.00on par

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOGB ↓

GVV Unitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

TOGB or draw

77%

TOGB or GVV Unitas

79%

Draw or GVV Unitas

45%

Winning margin

TOGB wins by 2+

33%

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TOGB 1+ goals

87%

TOGB 2+ goals

60%

TOGB 3+ goals

33%

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

71%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

36%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

TOGB (draw refunded)

71%

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOGB at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOGB attack 2.03 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.04

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + TOGB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TOGB scores more

55%

level

21%

GVV Unitas scores more

23%

TOGB at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TOGB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff