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GVV Unitas vs TOGB — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TOGB
TOGB
2/17/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 22Sportpark Molenvliet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

GVV Unitas41%
×Draw24%
TOGB35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVV Unitas
1.58
TOGB
1.43

GVV Unitas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 68 away

creates per match

GVV Unitas
1.31
TOGB
1.40

allows per match

GVV Unitas
1.46
TOGB
1.84

finishing

GVV Unitas+0.00on par
TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVV Unitas ↓

TOGB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GVV Unitas or draw
65%
GVV Unitas or TOGB
76%
Draw or TOGB
59%

Winning margin

GVV Unitas wins by 2+
21%
TOGB wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GVV Unitas 1+ goals
79%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
47%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
21%
TOGB 1+ goals
76%
TOGB 2+ goals
42%
TOGB 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
54%
TOGB (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVV Unitas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVV Unitas attack 1.31 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.58

TOGB attack 1.40 + GVV Unitas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GVV Unitas scores more
41%
level
24%
TOGB scores more
35%

GVV Unitas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GVV Unitas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: GVV Unitas 1–0 TOGB

GVV Unitas beat TOGB 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenvliet in Gorinchem.