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Tochovice vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
10/22/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 12Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice35%
×Draw22%
Spartak Soběslav44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
1.75
Spartak Soběslav
1.97

Spartak Soběslav creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tochovice
1.80
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Tochovice
2.20
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
56%
Tochovice or Spartak Soběslav
78%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
65%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
83%
Tochovice 2+ goals
52%
Tochovice 3+ goals
25%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
86%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
58%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
45%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 1.80 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Tochovice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tochovice scores more
35%
level
22%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
44%

Spartak Soběslav at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Tochovice 1–1 Spartak Soběslav

Tochovice and Spartak Soběslav drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.