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Spartak Soběslav vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Tochovice
Tochovice
5/20/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 27Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Spartak Soběslav67%
×Draw18%
Tochovice15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Soběslav
2.49
Tochovice
1.10

Spartak Soběslav creates 126% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spartak Soběslav
2.65
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Spartak Soběslav
1.07
Tochovice
2.33

finishing

Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Soběslav ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Spartak Soběslav or draw
85%
Spartak Soběslav or Tochovice
82%
Draw or Tochovice
33%

Winning margin

Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
45%
Tochovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
92%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
71%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
45%
Tochovice 1+ goals
67%
Tochovice 2+ goals
30%
Tochovice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
82%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Soběslav at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Soběslav attack 2.65 + Tochovice defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spartak Soběslav scores more
67%
level
18%
Tochovice scores more
15%

Spartak Soběslav at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spartak Soběslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Soběslav vs Tochovice

Spartak Soběslav beat Tochovice 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště TJ Spartak Soběslav in Soběslav.