Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tochovice vs Příbram II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Příbram II
Příbram II
9/28/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 3Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice41%
×Draw21%
Příbram II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
2.06
Příbram II
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tochovice
1.80
Příbram II
1.80

allows per match

Tochovice
2.20
Příbram II
2.33

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Příbram II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Příbram II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
61%
Tochovice or Příbram II
79%
Draw or Příbram II
59%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
23%
Příbram II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
87%
Tochovice 2+ goals
61%
Tochovice 3+ goals
34%
Příbram II 1+ goals
86%
Příbram II 2+ goals
59%
Příbram II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
51%
Příbram II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Příbram II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 1.80 + Příbram II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Příbram II attack 1.80 + Tochovice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tochovice scores more
41%
level
21%
Příbram II scores more
39%

Tochovice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochovice vs Příbram II

Příbram II beat Tochovice 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.