Příbram II 3–1 Tochovice: Result & Stats

Příbram II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tochovice

3/19/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Příbram II53%

×Draw22%

Tochovice25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Příbram IIExpected goals in this matchTochovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.30

Příbram II

1.98

Tochovice

1.30

Příbram II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.13

1.47

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Příbram II

1.62

Tochovice

1.13

allows per match

Příbram II

1.47

Tochovice

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par

Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Tochovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw

75%

Příbram II or Tochovice

78%

Draw or Tochovice

47%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+

31%

Tochovice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals

86%

Příbram II 2+ goals

59%

Příbram II 3+ goals

31%

Tochovice 1+ goals

73%

Tochovice 2+ goals

37%

Tochovice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)

68%

Tochovice (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Tochovice defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Příbram II scores more

53%

level

22%

Tochovice scores more

25%

Příbram II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff