Tochovice 2–5 Otava Katovice: Result & Stats

Tochovice

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Otava Katovice

10/8/2022

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice45%

×Draw21%

Otava Katovice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TochoviceExpected goals in this matchOtava Katovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.77

Tochovice

2.05

Otava Katovice

1.77

Tochovice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

1.80

creates per match

1.34

2.20

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Tochovice

1.80

Otava Katovice

1.34

allows per match

Tochovice

2.20

Otava Katovice

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par

Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Otava Katovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw

66%

Tochovice or Otava Katovice

79%

Draw or Otava Katovice

55%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+

25%

Otava Katovice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals

87%

Tochovice 2+ goals

61%

Tochovice 3+ goals

33%

Otava Katovice 1+ goals

83%

Otava Katovice 2+ goals

53%

Otava Katovice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)

57%

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 1.80 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.05

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Tochovice defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tochovice scores more

45%

level

21%

Otava Katovice scores more

34%

Tochovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tochovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff