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Otava Katovice vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Tochovice
Tochovice
5/6/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Otava Katovice61%
×Draw19%
Tochovice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otava Katovice
2.31
Tochovice
1.25

Otava Katovice creates 85% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Otava Katovice
2.29
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Otava Katovice
1.36
Tochovice
2.33

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw
80%
Otava Katovice or Tochovice
81%
Draw or Tochovice
39%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+
39%
Tochovice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals
90%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
67%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
40%
Tochovice 1+ goals
71%
Tochovice 2+ goals
36%
Tochovice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
75%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Tochovice defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Otava Katovice scores more
61%
level
19%
Tochovice scores more
20%

Otava Katovice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Otava Katovice 4–3 Tochovice

Otava Katovice beat Tochovice 4-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Dudák Arena in Katovice.