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Tochovice vs Kolín — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Tochovice
Tochovice
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Kolín
Kolín
4/15/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 21Stadion Tochovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tochovice30%
×Draw20%
Kolín50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochovice
1.77
Kolín
2.33

Kolín creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Tochovice
2.27
Kolín
2.40

allows per match

Tochovice
2.27
Kolín
1.28

finishing

Tochovice+0.00on par
Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochovice ↓

Kolín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Tochovice or draw
50%
Tochovice or Kolín
80%
Draw or Kolín
70%

Winning margin

Tochovice wins by 2+
15%
Kolín wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tochovice 1+ goals
83%
Tochovice 2+ goals
53%
Tochovice 3+ goals
26%
Kolín 1+ goals
90%
Kolín 2+ goals
67%
Kolín 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Tochovice (draw refunded)
37%
Kolín (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochovice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Kolín away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochovice attack 2.27 + Kolín defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kolín attack 2.40 + Tochovice defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tochovice scores more
30%
level
20%
Kolín scores more
50%

Kolín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochovice vs Kolín

Kolín beat Tochovice 4-3 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tochovice in Tochovice.