Kolín 3–1 Tochovice: Result & Stats

Kolín

FT

3 – 1

Tochovice

9/5/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 6Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kolín78%

×Draw13%

Tochovice9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolínExpected goals in this matchTochovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

0.96

Kolín

3.08

Tochovice

0.96

Kolín creates 221% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

3.68

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Kolín

3.68

Tochovice

1.13

allows per match

Kolín

0.80

Tochovice

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolín+0.00on par

Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolín ↓

Tochovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kolín or draw

91%

Kolín or Tochovice

87%

Draw or Tochovice

22%

Winning margin

Kolín wins by 2+

59%

Tochovice wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kolín 1+ goals

95%

Kolín 2+ goals

81%

Kolín 3+ goals

58%

Tochovice 1+ goals

62%

Tochovice 2+ goals

25%

Tochovice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kolín (draw refunded)

90%

Tochovice (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolín at home — creates 3.68, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolín attack 3.68 + Tochovice defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 3.08

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Kolín defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kolín scores more

78%

level

13%

Tochovice scores more

9%

Kolín at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff