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Tochigi SC vs Jubilo Iwata — J2 League 2018

Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
10/17/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 34Kanseki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Tochigi SC31%
×Draw28%
Jubilo Iwata41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tochigi SC
1.06
Jubilo Iwata
1.25

Jubilo Iwata creates 18% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tochigi SC
0.99
Jubilo Iwata
1.40

allows per match

Tochigi SC
1.11
Jubilo Iwata
1.13

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw
59%
Tochigi SC or Jubilo Iwata
72%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
69%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+
12%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals
65%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
29%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
9%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
71%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
36%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
44%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.40 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tochigi SC scores more
31%
level
28%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
41%

Jubilo Iwata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tochigi SC vs Jubilo Iwata

Tochigi SC and Jubilo Iwata drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Kanseki Stadium in Utsunomiya.