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Jubilo Iwata vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
5/1/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Jubilo Iwata50%
×Draw26%
Tochigi SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.52
Tochigi SC
0.95

Jubilo Iwata creates 60% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.84
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.14
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
76%
Jubilo Iwata or Tochigi SC
74%
Draw or Tochigi SC
50%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
26%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
78%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
45%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
20%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
61%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
25%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
68%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.14 · 85 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.84 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
50%
level
26%
Tochigi SC scores more
24%

Jubilo Iwata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Jubilo Iwata 3–2 Tochigi SC

Jubilo Iwata beat Tochigi SC 3-2 in J2 League on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.