Tochigi SC 2–1 Fagiano Okayama: Result & Stats

Tochigi SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fagiano Okayama

5/28/2023

J2 League · Round 18Kanseki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tochigi SC34%

×Draw30%

Fagiano Okayama36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tochigi SCExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.07

Tochigi SC

1.04

Fagiano Okayama

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 146 away

0.99

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tochigi SC

0.99

Fagiano Okayama

1.03

allows per match

Tochigi SC

1.11

Fagiano Okayama

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw

64%

Tochigi SC or Fagiano Okayama

70%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

66%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

13%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

65%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

28%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

9%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

66%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

29%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

49%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.03 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tochigi SC scores more

34%

level

30%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

36%

Fagiano Okayama at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff