Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fagiano Okayama vs Tochigi SC — J2 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC
10/29/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 40City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Fagiano Okayama44%
×Draw30%
Tochigi SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.21
Tochigi SC
0.86

Fagiano Okayama creates 41% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.22
Tochigi SC
0.76

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Tochigi SC
1.20

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Tochigi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
74%
Fagiano Okayama or Tochigi SC
70%
Draw or Tochigi SC
56%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
19%
Tochigi SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
70%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
34%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
12%
Tochigi SC 1+ goals
58%
Tochigi SC 2+ goals
21%
Tochigi SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
63%
Tochigi SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
44%
level
30%
Tochigi SC scores more
26%

Fagiano Okayama at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Tochigi SC

Fagiano Okayama and Tochigi SC drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.