Tochigi SC 1–2 Blaublitz Akita: Result & Stats

Tochigi SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Blaublitz Akita

10/1/2023

J2 League · Round 37Tochigi Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Tochigi SC37%

×Draw29%

Blaublitz Akita35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tochigi SCExpected goals in this matchBlaublitz Akita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.10

Tochigi SC

1.14

Blaublitz Akita

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 101 away

0.99

creates per match

1.08

1.11

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Tochigi SC

0.99

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

allows per match

Tochigi SC

1.11

Blaublitz Akita

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tochigi SC ↓

Blaublitz Akita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tochigi SC or draw

65%

Tochigi SC or Blaublitz Akita

71%

Draw or Blaublitz Akita

63%

Winning margin

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

15%

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

68%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

32%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

11%

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

67%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

30%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

51%

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tochigi SC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 147 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tochigi SC attack 0.99 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Tochigi SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tochigi SC scores more

37%

level

29%

Blaublitz Akita scores more

35%

Tochigi SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tochigi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff