Blaublitz Akita 3–0 Tochigi SC: Result & Stats

Blaublitz Akita

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tochigi SC

3/20/2024

J2 League · Round 5Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Blaublitz Akita37%

×Draw31%

Tochigi SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blaublitz AkitaExpected goals in this matchTochigi SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.92

Blaublitz Akita

1.02

Tochigi SC

0.92

Blaublitz Akita creates 11% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 148 away

0.85

creates per match

0.76

1.08

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita

0.85

Tochigi SC

0.76

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

Tochigi SC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Tochigi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Tochigi SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw

68%

Blaublitz Akita or Tochigi SC

69%

Draw or Tochigi SC

63%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

14%

Tochigi SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

64%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

27%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

8%

Tochigi SC 1+ goals

60%

Tochigi SC 2+ goals

23%

Tochigi SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

54%

Tochigi SC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Tochigi SC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Tochigi SC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tochigi SC attack 0.76 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more

37%

level

31%

Tochigi SC scores more

32%

Blaublitz Akita at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blaublitz Akita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff