Tocantinópolis 0–1 Juventude MA: Result & Stats

Tocantinópolis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Juventude MA

7/31/2021

Serie D · Round 9Estádio João Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tocantinópolis43%

×Draw29%

Juventude MA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TocantinópolisExpected goals in this matchJuventude MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.97

Tocantinópolis

1.26

Juventude MA

0.97

Tocantinópolis creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tocantinópolis

1.39

Juventude MA

1.00

allows per match

Tocantinópolis

0.93

Juventude MA

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tocantinópolis ↓

Juventude MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tocantinópolis or draw

71%

Tocantinópolis or Juventude MA

71%

Draw or Juventude MA

57%

Winning margin

Tocantinópolis wins by 2+

19%

Juventude MA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tocantinópolis 1+ goals

72%

Tocantinópolis 2+ goals

36%

Tocantinópolis 3+ goals

13%

Juventude MA 1+ goals

62%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

25%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)

60%

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tocantinópolis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tocantinópolis attack 1.39 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Tocantinópolis defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tocantinópolis scores more

43%

level

29%

Juventude MA scores more

29%

Tocantinópolis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tocantinópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff