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Juventude MA vs Tocantinópolis — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tocantinópolis
Tocantinópolis
5/7/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Juventude MA50%
×Draw24%
Tocantinópolis25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.67
Tocantinópolis
1.11

Juventude MA creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 46 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Tocantinópolis
1.02

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Tocantinópolis
2.13

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Tocantinópolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
75%
Juventude MA or Tocantinópolis
76%
Draw or Tocantinópolis
50%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
27%
Tocantinópolis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
81%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
50%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
23%
Tocantinópolis 1+ goals
67%
Tocantinópolis 2+ goals
30%
Tocantinópolis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
67%
Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Tocantinópolis away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Tocantinópolis defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tocantinópolis attack 1.02 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juventude MA scores more
50%
level
24%
Tocantinópolis scores more
25%

Juventude MA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude MA vs Tocantinópolis

Juventude MA and Tocantinópolis drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.