Tocantinópolis 0–2 4 de Julho: Result & Stats

Tocantinópolis

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

4 de Julho

8/21/2021

Serie D · Round 12Estádio João Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tocantinópolis46%

×Draw30%

4 de Julho24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TocantinópolisExpected goals in this match4 de Julho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.76

Tocantinópolis

1.19

4 de Julho

0.76

Tocantinópolis creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

0.58

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tocantinópolis

1.39

4 de Julho

0.58

allows per match

Tocantinópolis

0.93

4 de Julho

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tocantinópolis ↓

4 de Julho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tocantinópolis or draw

76%

Tocantinópolis or 4 de Julho

70%

Draw or 4 de Julho

54%

Winning margin

Tocantinópolis wins by 2+

20%

4 de Julho wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tocantinópolis 1+ goals

70%

Tocantinópolis 2+ goals

33%

Tocantinópolis 3+ goals

12%

4 de Julho 1+ goals

53%

4 de Julho 2+ goals

18%

4 de Julho 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)

66%

4 de Julho (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tocantinópolis at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tocantinópolis attack 1.39 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Tocantinópolis defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tocantinópolis scores more

46%

level

30%

4 de Julho scores more

24%

Tocantinópolis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tocantinópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff