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4 de Julho vs Tocantinópolis — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tocantinópolis
Tocantinópolis
6/19/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

4 de Julho54%
×Draw23%
Tocantinópolis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.77
Tocantinópolis
1.04

4 de Julho creates 70% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Tocantinópolis
1.02

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Tocantinópolis
2.13

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Tocantinópolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
78%
4 de Julho or Tocantinópolis
77%
Draw or Tocantinópolis
46%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
30%
Tocantinópolis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
83%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
53%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
26%
Tocantinópolis 1+ goals
65%
Tocantinópolis 2+ goals
28%
Tocantinópolis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
71%
Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Tocantinópolis away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Tocantinópolis defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tocantinópolis attack 1.02 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

4 de Julho scores more
54%
level
23%
Tocantinópolis scores more
22%

4 de Julho at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: 4 de Julho 1–1 Tocantinópolis

4 de Julho and Tocantinópolis drew 1-1 in Serie D on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.