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Tobermore United vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Tobermore United
Tobermore United
FT
1 – 2
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
4/12/2025League #561League #561 · Round 23Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tobermore United47%
×Draw21%
Moyola Park32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tobermore United
2.04
Moyola Park
1.66

Tobermore United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tobermore United
2.04
Moyola Park
1.48

allows per match

Tobermore United
1.83
Moyola Park
2.03

finishing

Tobermore United+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tobermore United ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tobermore United or draw
68%
Tobermore United or Moyola Park
79%
Draw or Moyola Park
53%

Winning margin

Tobermore United wins by 2+
27%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tobermore United 1+ goals
87%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
60%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
33%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
81%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
49%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tobermore United (draw refunded)
59%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tobermore United at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tobermore United attack 2.04 + Moyola Park defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.04

Moyola Park attack 1.48 + Tobermore United defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tobermore United scores more
47%
level
21%
Moyola Park scores more
32%

Tobermore United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tobermore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tobermore United vs Moyola Park

Moyola Park beat Tobermore United 2-1 in League #561 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Fortwilliam Park in Tobermore.