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Moyola Park vs Tobermore United — League #561 2026

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
FT
0 – 0
Tobermore United
Tobermore United
4/29/2023League #561League #561 · Promotion Round - 4Fortwilliam Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Moyola Park67%
×Draw18%
Tobermore United15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
2.40
Tobermore United
1.06

Moyola Park creates 126% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
2.30
Tobermore United
0.81

allows per match

Moyola Park
1.30
Tobermore United
2.50

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Tobermore United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Tobermore United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
85%
Moyola Park or Tobermore United
82%
Draw or Tobermore United
33%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
44%
Tobermore United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
91%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
69%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
42%
Tobermore United 1+ goals
65%
Tobermore United 2+ goals
29%
Tobermore United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
81%
Tobermore United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Tobermore United away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 2.30 + Tobermore United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tobermore United attack 0.81 + Moyola Park defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Moyola Park scores more
67%
level
18%
Tobermore United scores more
15%

Moyola Park at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Moyola Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyola Park vs Tobermore United

Moyola Park and Tobermore United drew 0-0 in League #561 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Fortwilliam Park in Tobermore.