TN Stars 2–0 Moyale Barracks: Result & Stats

TN Stars

FT

2 – 0

Moyale Barracks

8/15/2021

Super League · Round 20Kasungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TN Stars42%

×Draw28%

Moyale Barracks31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TN StarsExpected goals in this matchMoyale Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

TN Stars

1.29

Moyale Barracks

1.06

TN Stars creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

1.09

creates per match

0.86

1.26

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

TN Stars

1.09

Moyale Barracks

0.86

allows per match

TN Stars

1.26

Moyale Barracks

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TN Stars+0.00on par

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TN Stars ↓

Moyale Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TN Stars or draw

69%

TN Stars or Moyale Barracks

72%

Draw or Moyale Barracks

58%

Winning margin

TN Stars wins by 2+

19%

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

TN Stars 1+ goals

72%

TN Stars 2+ goals

37%

TN Stars 3+ goals

14%

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

65%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

29%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

TN Stars (draw refunded)

58%

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TN Stars at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TN Stars attack 1.09 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + TN Stars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TN Stars scores more

42%

level

28%

Moyale Barracks scores more

31%

TN Stars at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TN Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff