Moyale Barracks 1–2 TN Stars: Result & Stats

Moyale Barracks

FT

1 – 2

TN Stars

12/6/2020

Super League · Round 2Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Moyale Barracks64%

×Draw23%

TN Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moyale BarracksExpected goals in this matchTN Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.64

Moyale Barracks

1.73

TN Stars

0.64

Moyale Barracks creates 170% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

1.23

creates per match

0.59

0.69

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Moyale Barracks

1.23

TN Stars

0.59

allows per match

Moyale Barracks

0.69

TN Stars

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

TN Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw

87%

Moyale Barracks or TN Stars

77%

Draw or TN Stars

36%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

37%

TN Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

82%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

52%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

25%

TN Stars 1+ goals

47%

TN Stars 2+ goals

14%

TN Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

83%

TN Stars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more

64%

level

23%

TN Stars scores more

13%

Moyale Barracks at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff