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TN Stars vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

TN Stars
TN Stars
FT
2 – 1
MAFCO
MAFCO
7/18/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Kasungu Stadium 

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TN Stars39%
×Draw28%
MAFCO33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TN Stars
1.20
MAFCO
1.08

TN Stars creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

creates per match

TN Stars
1.09
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

TN Stars
1.26
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

TN Stars+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TN Stars ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

TN Stars or draw
67%
TN Stars or MAFCO
72%
Draw or MAFCO
61%

Winning margin

TN Stars wins by 2+
17%
MAFCO wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TN Stars 1+ goals
70%
TN Stars 2+ goals
34%
TN Stars 3+ goals
12%
MAFCO 1+ goals
66%
MAFCO 2+ goals
29%
MAFCO 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

TN Stars (draw refunded)
54%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TN Stars at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TN Stars attack 1.09 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

MAFCO attack 0.91 + TN Stars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

TN Stars scores more
39%
level
28%
MAFCO scores more
33%

TN Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TN Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TN Stars 2 – 1 MAFCO

TN Stars beat MAFCO 2-1 in Super League on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Kasungu Stadium  in Kasungu.