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MAFCO vs TN Stars — Super League 2026

MAFCO
MAFCO
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
TN Stars
TN Stars
4/20/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

MAFCO61%
×Draw23%
TN Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MAFCO
1.74
TN Stars
0.74

MAFCO creates 135% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 32 away

creates per match

MAFCO
1.25
TN Stars
0.59

allows per match

MAFCO
0.89
TN Stars
2.22

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par
TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

TN Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw
84%
MAFCO or TN Stars
77%
Draw or TN Stars
39%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+
35%
TN Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals
82%
MAFCO 2+ goals
52%
MAFCO 3+ goals
25%
TN Stars 1+ goals
52%
TN Stars 2+ goals
17%
TN Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)
80%
TN Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.74

TN Stars attack 0.59 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

MAFCO scores more
61%
level
23%
TN Stars scores more
16%

MAFCO at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: MAFCO 4–1 TN Stars

MAFCO beat TN Stars 4-1 in Super League on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Chitowe Stadium in Nkhotakota.