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TN Stars vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

TN Stars
TN Stars
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
4/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Kasungu Stadium 

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TN Stars35%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TN Stars
1.10
Kamuzu Barracks
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

TN Stars
1.09
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

TN Stars
1.26
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

TN Stars+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TN Stars ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

TN Stars or draw
64%
TN Stars or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
65%

Winning margin

TN Stars wins by 2+
14%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TN Stars 1+ goals
67%
TN Stars 2+ goals
30%
TN Stars 3+ goals
10%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
68%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
31%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

TN Stars (draw refunded)
49%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TN Stars at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TN Stars attack 1.09 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + TN Stars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

TN Stars scores more
35%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
36%

Kamuzu Barracks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TN Stars vs Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat TN Stars 2-0 in Super League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Kasungu Stadium  in Kasungu.