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TN Stars vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

TN Stars
TN Stars
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
8/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Kasungu Stadium 

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

TN Stars45%
×Draw27%
Dedza Dynamos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TN Stars
1.39
Dedza Dynamos
1.02

TN Stars creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

creates per match

TN Stars
1.09
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

TN Stars
1.26
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

TN Stars+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TN Stars ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TN Stars or draw
72%
TN Stars or Dedza Dynamos
73%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
55%

Winning margin

TN Stars wins by 2+
22%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TN Stars 1+ goals
75%
TN Stars 2+ goals
40%
TN Stars 3+ goals
16%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
64%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
27%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

TN Stars (draw refunded)
62%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TN Stars at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TN Stars attack 1.09 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + TN Stars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TN Stars scores more
45%
level
27%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
28%

TN Stars at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TN Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TN Stars vs Dedza Dynamos

Dedza Dynamos beat TN Stars 3-0 in Super League on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Kasungu Stadium  in Kasungu.