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Dedza Dynamos vs TN Stars — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TN Stars
TN Stars
5/2/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dedza Dynamos62%
×Draw24%
TN Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.65
TN Stars
0.65

Dedza Dynamos creates 154% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
TN Stars
0.59

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
TN Stars
2.22

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

TN Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
86%
Dedza Dynamos or TN Stars
76%
Draw or TN Stars
38%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
34%
TN Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
81%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
49%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
23%
TN Stars 1+ goals
48%
TN Stars 2+ goals
14%
TN Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
81%
TN Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
62%
level
24%
TN Stars scores more
14%

Dedza Dynamos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dedza Dynamos vs TN Stars

TN Stars beat Dedza Dynamos 2-1 in Super League on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.