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Tlaxcala vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
10/27/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala43%
×Draw26%
Venados FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.41
Venados FC
1.13

Tlaxcala creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 132 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Venados FC
1.64

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
70%
Tlaxcala or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
57%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
21%
Venados FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
76%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
41%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
17%
Venados FC 1+ goals
68%
Venados FC 2+ goals
31%
Venados FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
59%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Venados FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
43%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
30%

Tlaxcala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 1–1 Venados FC

Tlaxcala and Venados FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.