Tlaxcala 1–0 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Tlaxcala

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Venados FC

L. Carrillo 85'

2/22/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala43%

×Draw27%

Venados FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TlaxcalaExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Tlaxcala

1.38

Venados FC

1.13

Tlaxcala creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 129 away

1.18

creates per match

0.98

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tlaxcala

1.18

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Tlaxcala

1.27

Venados FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw

69%

Tlaxcala or Venados FC

73%

Draw or Venados FC

57%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+

20%

Venados FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals

75%

Tlaxcala 2+ goals

40%

Tlaxcala 3+ goals

16%

Venados FC 1+ goals

68%

Venados FC 2+ goals

31%

Venados FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)

58%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tlaxcala scores more

43%

level

27%

Venados FC scores more

31%

Tlaxcala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

33'

46'

46'

46'

M. Pérez← L. Nequecaur

58'

W. Guzmán← C. Rosel

62'

J. Hernández← B. Barja

62'

J. Celaya← K. Esquivel

67'

J. Miranda← K. Amador

67'

J. López← S. Lora

71'

A. Serna← Jesse Zamudio

74'

M. Perez

85'

L. Carrillo

90'

P. Santos

Tlaxcala

Venados

12

33

6

3

16

2

7

▼

Rosel

32

▼

Nequecaur

29

▼

Lora

8

Calzadill

18

▼

21

3

4

2

12

8

9

▼

Ríos

7

▼

Zamudio

11

▼

Esquivel

19

▼

Millán

27

▼

Barja

Manager: F. Ramírez

46'▲P. Santos←▼O. Millán

46'▲L. Carrillo←▼P. Ríos

62'▲J. Hernández←▼B. Barja

62'▲J. Celaya←▼K. Esquivel

71'▲A. Serna←▼Jesse Zamudio

Tlaxcala substitutes

28Santos6Carrillo20Hernández14Celaya17Serna25Navarrete26Lajud29Rodríguez31Hernández22Zetuna

Manager: R. Fernández

46'▲M. Pérez←▼L. Nequecaur

58'▲W. Guzmán←▼C. Rosel

67'▲J. Miranda←▼K. Amador

67'▲J. López←▼S. Lora

Venados FC substitutes

9Pérez10Guzmán5Miranda21López1Reyes4Román11Zerecero19Catalán20Agualimpia