Tlaxcala 2–3 Pumas Tabasco: Result & Stats

Tlaxcala

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Pumas Tabasco

3/23/2021

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tlaxcala40%

×Draw26%

Pumas Tabasco34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TlaxcalaExpected goals in this matchPumas Tabasco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Tlaxcala

1.39

Pumas Tabasco

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 50 away

1.18

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Tlaxcala

1.18

Pumas Tabasco

1.26

allows per match

Tlaxcala

1.27

Pumas Tabasco

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Pumas Tabasco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw

66%

Tlaxcala or Pumas Tabasco

74%

Draw or Pumas Tabasco

60%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+

19%

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals

75%

Tlaxcala 2+ goals

40%

Tlaxcala 3+ goals

16%

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

72%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

36%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)

54%

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tlaxcala scores more

40%

level

26%

Pumas Tabasco scores more

34%

Tlaxcala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff