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Pumas Tabasco vs Tlaxcala — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
1/11/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco40%
×Draw28%
Tlaxcala32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
1.25
Tlaxcala
1.07

Pumas Tabasco creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 95 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Tlaxcala
0.80

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Tlaxcala
1.71

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Tlaxcala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
68%
Pumas Tabasco or Tlaxcala
72%
Draw or Tlaxcala
60%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
18%
Tlaxcala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
71%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
36%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
13%
Tlaxcala 1+ goals
66%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
29%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
56%
Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Tlaxcala away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.71 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Tlaxcala defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tlaxcala attack 0.80 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
40%
level
28%
Tlaxcala scores more
32%

Pumas Tabasco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pumas Tabasco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 3–0 Tlaxcala

Pumas Tabasco beat Tlaxcala 3-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.