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Tlaxcala vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dorados
Dorados
1/25/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala45%
×Draw26%
Dorados29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.49
Dorados
1.13

Tlaxcala creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 122 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Dorados
0.98

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Dorados
1.80

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Dorados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
71%
Tlaxcala or Dorados
74%
Draw or Dorados
55%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
22%
Dorados wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
77%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
44%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
19%
Dorados 1+ goals
68%
Dorados 2+ goals
31%
Dorados 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
61%
Dorados (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.80 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Dorados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dorados attack 0.98 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
45%
level
26%
Dorados scores more
29%

Tlaxcala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tlaxcala 0–1 Dorados

Dorados beat Tlaxcala 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.