Dorados 1–1 Tlaxcala: Result & Stats

Dorados

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tlaxcala

A. Flores 40'

E. Robles 90'

10/26/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Dorados50%

×Draw25%

Tlaxcala25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoradosExpected goals in this matchTlaxcala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Dorados

1.56

Tlaxcala

1.02

Dorados creates 53% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 95 away

1.42

creates per match

0.80

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dorados

1.42

Tlaxcala

0.80

allows per match

Dorados

1.24

Tlaxcala

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par

Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Tlaxcala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dorados or draw

75%

Dorados or Tlaxcala

75%

Draw or Tlaxcala

50%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+

26%

Tlaxcala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals

79%

Dorados 2+ goals

46%

Dorados 3+ goals

21%

Tlaxcala 1+ goals

64%

Tlaxcala 2+ goals

27%

Tlaxcala 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)

67%

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 126 matches

Tlaxcala away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.71 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.42 + Tlaxcala defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tlaxcala attack 0.80 + Dorados defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dorados scores more

50%

level

25%

Tlaxcala scores more

25%

Dorados at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

A. Flores

43'

E. Solis← F. Plascencia

46'

F. Partida← A. Zaragoza

46'

E. Robles← O. Salomon

57'

A. Valenzuela← J. Alvarez

60'

67'

69'

72'

76'

Fabio Erins← J. D. Gonzalez Martinez

85'

E. Bonilla← L. Garcia

85'

J. Acurio← J. Rengifo

90+2'

E. Solis

90+5'

J. Acurio

90+7'

E. Robles

90'

E. Robles↳ P. Gonzalez

Dorados

Tlaxcala

13

Mendoza

6

▼

12

19

31

2

A

Gonzalez

8

▼

Plascenci

21

▼

Zaragoza

25

▼

Rojas

9

Christian

11

▼

13

2

3

4

5

⚽

▼

Flores

7

▼

Alvarez

8

Cortes

11

▼

Garcia

15

Galicia

27

Sanchez

9

▼

Rengifo

Manager: Cirilo Saucedo Nájera

57'▲A. Valenzuela←▼J. Alvarez

72'▲D. Araujo←▼A. Flores

85'▲E. Bonilla←▼L. Garcia

85'▲J. Acurio←▼J. Rengifo

Dorados substitutes

18Higuera24Ramirez10Bonilla12Egana14Sol20Araujo26Valenzuela31Ramos19Vazquez35Acurio

Manager: L. Orozco

43'▲E. Solis←▼F. Plascencia

46'▲F. Partida←▼A. Zaragoza

46'▲E. Robles←▼O. Salomon

67'▲D. Tejeda←▼H. Rojas

76'▲Fabio Erins←▼J. D. Gonzalez Martinez

Tlaxcala substitutes

30Nuno4Erins18Buganza5Esnaider15Tejeda16Solis17Castillo27Partida24Robles

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 1–1 Tlaxcala

Dorados and Tlaxcala drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Flores (40'), E. Robles (90').

The match was played at Estadio Dorados.

Dorados vs Tlaxcala — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 1–1 Tlaxcala