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Tlaxcala vs Cancún — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cancún
Cancún
1/17/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Tlahuicole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tlaxcala41%
×Draw28%
Cancún32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tlaxcala
1.28
Cancún
1.09

Tlaxcala creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tlaxcala
1.18
Cancún
0.92

allows per match

Tlaxcala
1.27
Cancún
1.38

finishing

Tlaxcala+0.00on par
Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tlaxcala ↓

Cancún →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tlaxcala or draw
68%
Tlaxcala or Cancún
72%
Draw or Cancún
59%

Winning margin

Tlaxcala wins by 2+
18%
Cancún wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tlaxcala 1+ goals
72%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
37%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
14%
Cancún 1+ goals
66%
Cancún 2+ goals
30%
Cancún 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
56%
Cancún (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tlaxcala at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tlaxcala attack 1.18 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cancún attack 0.92 + Tlaxcala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tlaxcala scores more
41%
level
28%
Cancún scores more
32%

Tlaxcala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tlaxcala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tlaxcala vs Cancún

Tlaxcala beat Cancún 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Tlahuicole in Tlaxcala.