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Cancún vs Tlaxcala — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Tlaxcala
Tlaxcala
9/28/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Cancún55%
×Draw25%
Tlaxcala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.61
Tlaxcala
0.87

Cancún creates 85% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Tlaxcala
0.80

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Tlaxcala
1.71

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Tlaxcala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
80%
Cancún or Tlaxcala
75%
Draw or Tlaxcala
45%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
29%
Tlaxcala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
80%
Cancún 2+ goals
48%
Cancún 3+ goals
22%
Tlaxcala 1+ goals
58%
Tlaxcala 2+ goals
22%
Tlaxcala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
73%
Tlaxcala (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Tlaxcala away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.71 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Tlaxcala defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tlaxcala attack 0.80 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cancún scores more
55%
level
25%
Tlaxcala scores more
20%

Cancún at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cancún 5–2 Tlaxcala

Cancún beat Tlaxcala 5-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo in Cancún.