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Tivoli vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
9/18/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli46%
×Draw29%
Real Monterotondo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
1.25
Real Monterotondo
0.84

Tivoli creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
75%
Tivoli or Real Monterotondo
71%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
54%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
21%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
71%
Tivoli 2+ goals
36%
Tivoli 3+ goals
13%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
57%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
21%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
65%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tivoli scores more
46%
level
29%
Real Monterotondo scores more
25%

Tivoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Tivoli 2–0 Real Monterotondo

Tivoli beat Real Monterotondo 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.