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Real Monterotondo vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tivoli
Tivoli
F. Di Vico 79'
1/22/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Monterotondo42%
×Draw25%
Tivoli34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monterotondo
1.56
Tivoli
1.37

Real Monterotondo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Monterotondo
1.54
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

Real Monterotondo
1.50
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monterotondo ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Monterotondo or draw
66%
Real Monterotondo or Tivoli
75%
Draw or Tivoli
58%

Winning margin

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
21%
Tivoli wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
79%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
46%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
21%
Tivoli 1+ goals
75%
Tivoli 2+ goals
40%
Tivoli 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
56%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monterotondo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monterotondo attack 1.54 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Monterotondo scores more
42%
level
25%
Tivoli scores more
34%

Real Monterotondo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Monterotondo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
F. Di Vico

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Monterotondo vs Tivoli

Real Monterotondo beat Tivoli 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 22, 2023.

Goals: F. Di Vico (79').

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Pierangeli in Monterotondo.