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Tivoli vs Lupa Roma — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Tivoli
Tivoli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
9/4/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Olindo Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tivoli37%
×Draw34%
Lupa Roma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tivoli
0.91
Lupa Roma
0.76

Tivoli creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tivoli
0.88
Lupa Roma
0.82

allows per match

Tivoli
0.71
Lupa Roma
0.94

finishing

Tivoli+0.00on par
Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli ↓

Lupa Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tivoli or draw
71%
Tivoli or Lupa Roma
66%
Draw or Lupa Roma
63%

Winning margin

Tivoli wins by 2+
13%
Lupa Roma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tivoli 1+ goals
60%
Tivoli 2+ goals
23%
Tivoli 3+ goals
6%
Lupa Roma 1+ goals
53%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
18%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tivoli (draw refunded)
56%
Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli attack 0.88 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Tivoli defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tivoli scores more
37%
level
34%
Lupa Roma scores more
29%

Tivoli at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tivoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Tivoli 1–0 Lupa Roma

Tivoli beat Lupa Roma 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olindo Galli in Tivoli.