Lupa Roma 2–3 Tivoli: Result & Stats

Lupa Roma

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Tivoli

1/8/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma53%

×Draw24%

Tivoli23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lupa RomaExpected goals in this matchTivoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.00

Lupa Roma

1.68

Tivoli

1.00

Lupa Roma creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

0.76

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Lupa Roma

1.76

Tivoli

1.24

allows per match

Lupa Roma

0.76

Tivoli

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Tivoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw

77%

Lupa Roma or Tivoli

76%

Draw or Tivoli

47%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

29%

Tivoli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

81%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

50%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

24%

Tivoli 1+ goals

63%

Tivoli 2+ goals

26%

Tivoli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

70%

Tivoli (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lupa Roma scores more

53%

level

24%

Tivoli scores more

23%

Lupa Roma at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff